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. 2014 Feb;51(1):27-49.
doi: 10.1007/s13524-013-0246-9.

Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States

Samuel H Preston  1 , Andrew Stokes, Neil K Mehta, Bochen Cao
Affiliations

Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States

Samuel H Preston et al. Demography. 2014 Feb.

Abstract

We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Trends in smoking and obesity in the United States. Sources: Cigarette consumption data per adult per year are extracted from U.S. Department of Agriculture (2007). Obesity data are based on measured body mass index in NHANES from 1960 to 2010
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Actual and projected trends in body mass index. Dotted lines indicate projections. Sources: Historical values are calculated using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey II, III, 1999–2004 and 2009–2010
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Effects of projected trends in BMI on age-specific death rates
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Mean number of years spent as a cigarette smoker before age 40 by cohort. Sources: Data are derived from the National Health Interview Survey
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Cohort coefficients predicting lung cancer mortality and cumulative cohort smoking by age 40. Sources: Data on smoking are derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Coefficients are derived from age/cohort model of lung cancer mortality
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Effects of projected trends in smoking on age-specific death rates
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Combined effects of projected trends in smoking and obesity on age-specific death rates
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