Recent Demographic Developments in France: Relatively Low Mortality at Advanced Ages

Abstract

France had 65.3 million inhabitants as of 1 January 2012, including 1.9 million in the overseas départements. The population is slightly younger than that of the European Union as a whole. Population growth continues at the same rate, mainly through natural increase. There are now more African than European immigrants living in France. Fertility was practically stable in 2011 (2.01 children per woman), but the lifetime fertility of the 1971-1972 cohorts reached a historic low in metropolitan France (1.99 children per woman), nevertheless remaining among the highest in Europe. Abortion levels remained stable and rates among young people are no longer increasing. The marriage rate is falling and the divorce rate has stabilized (46.2 divorces per 100 marriages in 2011). The risk of divorce decreases with age, but has greatly increased among the under-70s over the last decade. Life expectancy at birth (78.4 years for men, 85.0 for women) has continued to increase at the same rate, mainly thanks to progress at advanced ages. Among European countries, France has the lowest mortality in the over-65 age group, but it ranks less well for premature mortality.

Keywords: European comparisons; France; abortion; age structure; causes of death; demographic situation; divorce; fertility; marriage; mortality.

Figure 1. Population pyramid of France on 1 January 2012

Coverage: Metropolitan France. Source: INSEE.

Figure 2. Population pyramids of France and the European Union on 1 January 2011

Sources: INSEE and Eurostat.

Figure 3. Immigrants residing in metropolitan France in 1999, 2006 and 2009 by country of birth*

* Most represented countries in 2009. Coverage: Metropolitan France. Source: INSEE, population censuses of 1999, 2006 and 2009.

Figure 4. Monthly births* since 1990

* Monthly numbers adjusted to a uniform period of 30.4 days per month. Moving averages over 13 months. Coverage: Metropolitan France. Source: INSEE.

Figure 5. Decomposition of the total fertility rate by birth order (A), and mothers’ mean age by birth order (B) since the 1970s

Coverage: Metropolitan France. Sources: Davie and Niel (2012), Table 3, p. 31; Beaumel and Pla (2012).

Figure 6. Total fertility rate in Europe since 1990

Source: Eurostat (site consulted in September 2012).

Figure 7. Age-specific fertility rate in 2010 (A) and age distribution of the TFR in 2010 (B) in five European countries

Source: Eurostat (site consulted in September 2012).

Figure 8. Ranking of 27 European countries by completed fertility of the 1964–1965 (A) and 1974–1975 (B) cohorts

* 1969–1970 cohort in Estonia and Poland. Source: Authors’ calculations and estimates from data published on the Eurostat website.

Figure 9. Trend since 1998 in abortion rates at ages 14–20 years (A) (per 1,000 women) and in percentage of pregnancies terminated (B)

Coverage: Metropolitan France Sources: Calculations and estimates of conceptions based on induced abortions (estimates by Rossier and Pirus (2007) up to 2002, then Vilain and Mouquet (2012)), and births (INSEE statistics).

Figure 10. Ranking of 21 European countries by frequency of legal abortions in 2010. Total rate (sum of rates by age, per 1,000 women) (A) and abortion rate of women aged under 20 (per 1,000 women ages 15–19) (B)

* Data for 2009. Sources: Authors’ calculations based on statistical data published on the Eurostat website and by national statistical institutes.

Figure 11. Female probability of divorce by age from 1970 to 2010 (A) and from the 1925 birth cohort to the 1975 birth cohort (B)

Note: Probabilities are smoothed over 3 ages. Coverage: Metropolitan France, direct divorces and separations converted into divorces. Sources: Calculations and estimates based on statistics from INSEE and the Ministry of Justice.

Figure 12. Life expectancy at birth by sex, 1946–2010

Coverage: Metropolitan France. Source: INSEE, Demographic Surveys and Studies Division.

Figure 13. Male and female life expectancy at birth in France and 19 other European countries, 1980–2009

Construction: The graphs represent the distribution of the 20 countries on the relevant indicator (here, life expectancy at birth) for each calendar year. The rectangular box captures half of the observations (those which fall between the first and third quartiles). It is cut by a thick green line representing the median. The “whiskers” located on either side of the rectangle correspond to the lower and upper limits, known as “adjacent values,” of the normal distribution, except when the extreme values are close to the median, in which case the whiskers end at the extreme value. The adjacent values are calculated from the interquartile range (which is multiplied by 1.5, and then subtracted from the first quartile and added to the third). The high and low values not included in this range are represented by circles positioned below or above the whiskers (for an example see Figure 16). Interpretation: In 1980, the median male life expectancy among the countries considered here was 69.1 years; the values of the first and third quartiles were 66.4 and 70.3 years, and the adjacent values were 63.7 and 72.8 years. There were no outliers in the distribution of countries. Coverage: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom. Among the countries in Appendix Table A.12, Greece, Romania and Slovenia are excluded due to a lack of data. Source: Human Mortality Database, www.mortality.org, 2012.

Figure 14. Male and female probability of dying at ages 65–80 in France and 19 other European countries, 1980–2009

Construction: See Figure 13 for further details. Coverage: See Figure 13. Source: Human Mortality Database, www.mortality.org, 2012.

Figure 15. Male and female life expectancy at age 80 in France and 19 other European countries, 1980–2009

Construction: see Figure 13. Coverage: see Figure 13. Source: Human Mortality Database, www.mortality.org, 2012.

Figure 16. Gender gap in life expectancy at birth in France and 19 other European countries, 1980–2009

Construction: see Figure 13. Coverage: see Figure 13. Source: Human Mortality Database, www.mortality.org, 2012.

Figure 17. Excess male mortality by age in 1978–1980, 1988–1990, 1998–2000 and 2008–2010

Coverage: Metropolitan France. Source: INSEE, Demographic Surveys and Studies Division

Figure 18. Absolute and relative change in infant mortality and its components in France, 1980–2010

Coverage: Metropolitan France. Source: INSEE, Situation démographique 2010,Table 70.