Increasing melanoma-too many skin cell damages or too few repairs?

Abstract

Skin melanoma rates have been increasing for a long time in many Western countries. The object of this study was to apply modern problem-solving theory normally used to clear industrial problems to search for roots and causes of this medical question. Increasing cancer rates can be due to too many cell damage incidents or to too few repairs. So far, it has been assumed that the melanoma epidemic mainly is caused by increasing sun tanning habits. In order to explore this problem in more detail, we used cancer statistics from several countries over time and space. Detailed analysis of data obtained and a model study to evaluate the effects from increased damages or decreased repairs clearly indicate that the main reason behind the melanoma problem is a disturbed immune system. The possibility to introduce efficient corrective actions is apparent.

Figure 1

Increasing rates of melanoma in Sweden according to an article in Aftonbladet, 1998.

Figure 2

Melanoma incidence versus age in the Nordic countries and USA before 1950. Also shown is the melanoma incidence of birth cohorts born in 1940 and later in Sweden. From [2].

Figure 3

The incidence of melanoma in women in Norway roughly doubled on the head region after 1955 while it increased by almost 20 times on the rest of the body (RoB) [3].

Figure 4

The incidence of melanoma is unevenly distributed within Nordic countries. The maps represent Sweden, Norway and Finland from left to right.

Figure 5

Calculated radiation levels from main broadcasting transmitters in Sweden, Norway and Finland. The first graph represents Sweden and shows areas with highest radiation levels. The second plot represents Norway, showing the highest levels in the south part of the country. The third plot gives areas in Finland covered by three or more main broadcasting transmitters (red colour).

Figure 6

Distribution of melanoma over the body and the relative rate of melanoma per unit body area. Data are from Sweden and the details are from two doctoral thesis publications further referred to in [4].

Figure 7

The number of deaths in skin melanoma and in lung cancer started to increase quite abruptly from 1955 in Sweden [5]. Data earlier than 1952 were obtained from paper files at Statistics Sweden (SCB).

Figure 8

Melanoma mortality in Swedish counties related to the year they got FM radio broadcasting (from 1955 to 1965). From [7], with permission to copy.

Figure 9

Age-standardized rate of melanoma in Sweden (world standard).

Figure 10

The mortality in melanoma starts to increase again after 2005 for men in Sweden.

Figure 11

Optimum fit functions to correlate car population with melanoma incidence in Norway, Denmark and Sweden. The result indicates no similarity at all between cars and melanoma in the different countries.

Figure 12

Characteristic functions for Exposure-Time-Specific-Incidence from FM-radiation in Sweden, Norway, Denmark and the USA [5].

Figure 13

Radiation absorption by the human body vs. frequency [9].

Figure 14

Calculated power density from main FM-transmitters vs. melanoma incidence in the 298 communities in Sweden.

Figure 15

Melanoma incidence vs. the number of covering FM radio transmitters in Sweden [10].

Figure 16

Melanoma and breast cancer incidence vs. the use of metal spring beds in different parts of the world, from [11].

Figure 17

The number of new cases of breast cancer per year in Sweden shows a left dominance [13,14].

Figure 18

Charter travel, melanoma incidence and melanoma mortality start to increase from years 1962, 1958 and 1955 respectively [6].

Figure 19

An extract from the Excel application where calculated and reported age-standardized rates have been fitted by varying the two dispersion parameters shown in green fields.

Figure 20

(a) Reported age-specific incidence, for men in Sweden [2]. (b) Calculated age-specific incidence for men in Sweden [2].

Figure 21

The melanoma mortality among men in the Nordic countries is increasing exponentially as a function of time lived in the Nordic environment after 1955.

Figure 22

(a) Calculated and reported ASR assuming increasing skin damage rates between 1930–1980 [2]. (b) Calculated age-specific rates based on increasing sun-tanning habits [2].

Figure 23

Every summer the number of sick registered in Sweden drops. In 1997 the general trend got worsened.

Figure 24

Since 2005 the incidence of melanoma in the head/face region is increasing in all Nordic countries. Since 2000 the use of mobile phones has increased by almost ten times [21].