Lessons raised by the major 2010 dengue epidemics in the French West Indies

Abstract

Dengue fever has been endemo-epidemic in the whole Region of America. In 2010, Guadeloupe and Martinique experienced historical epidemics, with an estimated attack rate of 10% in two islands. When considering the temporal evolution of epidemiological indicators, an unusual increase in the number of dengue cases could be detected very early. Two main factors might have facilitated the settlement of a viral transmission despite the dry season: a low immunity of the population against the circulating serotype and particular climatic conditions, notably very high temperatures which could have improved both virus and vector efficiency. This unusual situation was considered as a warning sign, and indeed led to major outbreaks in both islands a few weeks later. This event underlines that follow-up of epidemiological indicators is necessary to detect the unusual situations as soon as possible. Furthermore, development of biological and modelling tools should be promoted, as well as integrated management strategies for dengue prevention and control.

Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Epidemiology; Outbreak; Surveillance.