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. 2014 Jan 14;111(2):746-51.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315088111. Epub 2013 Dec 16.

How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface

David E Calkin  1 , Jack D Cohen, Mark A Finney, Matthew P Thompson
Affiliations

How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface

David E Calkin et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Recent fire seasons in the western United States are some of the most damaging and costly on record. Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface on the Colorado Front Range, resulting in thousands of homes burned and civilian fatalities, although devastating, are not without historical reference. These fires are consistent with the characteristics of large, damaging, interface fires that threaten communities across much of the western United States. Wildfires are inevitable, but the destruction of homes, ecosystems, and lives is not. We propose the principles of risk analysis to provide land management agencies, first responders, and affected communities who face the inevitability of wildfires the ability to reduce the potential for loss. Overcoming perceptions of wildland-urban interface fire disasters as a wildfire control problem rather than a home ignition problem, determined by home ignition conditions, will reduce home loss.

Keywords: fuel treatment; home ignition zone; risk assessment.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Conceptual model highlighting the major fundamental objectives (level 1), means-based objectives (levels 2 and 3), and actions for reducing the risk of home loss as a result of wildfire. The risk of home loss is jointly determined by the probability of home exposure to wildfire and the susceptibility of home to wildfire, which in turn are influenced by other factors. Actions and responsibilities for strategically managing risk factors vary across land management agencies, local government, and private landowners.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
WUI disaster sequence. Each box corresponds to a factor that critically contributes to high numbers of destroyed homes during a WUI fire. Note that, if homes are ignition-resistant and numerous home ignitions do not occur (step 3), structure protection effectiveness is greater for home ignitions that do occur, thereby preventing disastrous losses.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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