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. 2014 Jan 21;110(2):535-45.
doi: 10.1038/bjc.2013.730. Epub 2013 Dec 17.

BOADICEA breast cancer risk prediction model: updates to cancer incidences, tumour pathology and web interface

A J Lee  1 , A P Cunningham  1 , K B Kuchenbaecker  1 , N Mavaddat  1 , D F Easton  2 , A C Antoniou  3 ; Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2; Breast Cancer Association Consortium
Affiliations

BOADICEA breast cancer risk prediction model: updates to cancer incidences, tumour pathology and web interface

A J Lee et al. Br J Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) is a risk prediction model that is used to compute probabilities of carrying mutations in the high-risk breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2, and to estimate the future risks of developing breast or ovarian cancer. In this paper, we describe updates to the BOADICEA model that extend its capabilities, make it easier to use in a clinical setting and yield more accurate predictions.

Methods: We describe: (1) updates to the statistical model to include cancer incidences from multiple populations; (2) updates to the distributions of tumour pathology characteristics using new data on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and women with breast cancer from the general population; (3) improvements to the computational efficiency of the algorithm so that risk calculations now run substantially faster; and (4) updates to the model's web interface to accommodate these new features and to make it easier to use in a clinical setting.

Results: We present results derived using the updated model, and demonstrate that the changes have a significant impact on risk predictions.

Conclusion: All updates have been implemented in a new version of the BOADICEA web interface that is now available for general use: http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(A) The age-specific female breast cancer incidences per 100 000 for the United Kingdom for the periods 1960–1963 and 1973–1977, and the years 1993 and 2010. (B) The age-specific female breast cancer incidences per 100 000 for 2007 for the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Sweden and the United States. (C) The old, non-smoothed and smoothed updated incidence per 100 000 for females born in 1975 used in the BOADICEA code. (D) The BOADICEA predicted risk for a 30-year-old female born in 1975 with no family history information for the United Kingdom, updated and old, and other countries.
Figure 2
Figure 2
(A) The age-specific proportions of ER-negative tumours used in BOADICEA for BRCA2 mutation carriers. The previous version used data from SEER for the general population, whereas the new version uses data from CIMBA, specific to BRCA2 mutation carriers. (B) The age-specific proportions for TN tumours among ER-negative tumours for the general population. The previous version of BOADICEA used an age constant proportion derived from BCLC data, whereas the new version uses an age-specific proportion derived from BCAC data.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Risk of (A) breast cancer and (B) ovarian cancer calculated by BOADICEA for a female aged 30 years, born in 1975, as a function of her mother's age at breast cancer and cancer subtype.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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