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Comparative Study
. 2013 Dec 31;8(12):e82579.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0082579. eCollection 2013.

Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios

Diana R Lane  1 , Richard C Ready  2 , Robert W Buddemeier  3 , Jeremy A Martinich  4 , Kate Cardamone Shouse  4 , Cameron W Wobus  1
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios

Diana R Lane et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors affiliated with Stratus Consulting, Diana Lane and Cameron Wobus, have reviewed the PLOS Policy on Declaration and Evaluation of Competing Interests and determined that they do not have any competing interests. These authors conduct objective, fact-based analysis as part of their employment by a private consultancy. Their employment by a private consultancy does not bias their contributions to this manuscript. Their employment does not alter their adherence to all the PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. For example, the source code for the COMBO model has already been deposited in a public repository, as described in the manuscript.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. a–c. Coral cover for two climate scenarios in a) Florida, b) Puerto Rico, and c) Hawaii.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Economic values (with 95% confidence interval) for BAU and reduced emission scenarios for Florida.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Economic values (with 95% confidence interval) for BAU and reduced emission scenarios for Puerto Rico.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Economic values (with 95% confidence interval) for BAU and reduced emission scenarios for Hawaii.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. Burke L, Maidens J (2004) Reefs at risk in the Caribbean. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
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    1. Birkeland C (2004) Ratcheting down the coral reefs. BioSci 54: 1021–1027.
    1. Smith SV, Buddemeier RW (1992) Global change and coral reef ecosystems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 23: 89–118.

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