Impact of changing U.S. demographics on the decline in smoking prevalence, 1980-2010

Abstract

Introduction: U.S. smoking prevalence has been declining over the last several decades. During this time, the population has also experienced changes in its demographic composition, as Americans are living longer and becoming increasingly racially and ethnically diverse. Since smoking rates vary across age and race/ethnicity groups, demographics alone could contribute to changes in smoking prevalence among the general population. We examined the effect of changing age and race/ethnicity distributions on total smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2010.

Methods: Using the National Health Interview Survey weighting scheme, we applied the distribution of smokers across age and race/ethnicity categories for the years 1980 and 2010 to the distribution of adults in those categories for both years. The total number of smokers was summed to determine resulting smoking prevalence.

Results: The combined effect of aging and the changing racial/ethnic composition of the U.S. population has contributed 2.1% points to the decline in smoking prevalence. If the age and racial/ethnic demographic composition had not changed since 1980, smoking prevalence would have been 21.3% in 2010 (with rounding)--statistically significantly higher than the reported 19.3%. Of the 3 demographic factors we considered (age, race, and ethnicity), ethnicity--specifically the rising share of Hispanics in the population--is the most important contributor to declines in smoking.

Conclusions: Our changing demographics have had an impact on smoking prevalence over the last 3 decades. Future declines in smoking may be driven even more by the aging of the population and increasing racial and ethnic diversity.