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. 2013 Dec;108(8):992-6.
doi: 10.1590/0074-0276130331.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Paulo Silva de Almeida  1 , Alan Sciamarelli  1 , Paulo Mira Batista  2 , Ademar Dimas Ferreira  3 , João Nascimento  3 , Josué Raizer  1 , José Dilermando Andrade Filho  4 , Rodrigo Gurgel-Gonçalves  5
Affiliations

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Paulo Silva de Almeida et al. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2013 Dec.

Abstract

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis. ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

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Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. ecological niche models projected for the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (left) and human cases of visceral leishmaniasis (right). Areas identified as suitable based on the records of the occurrence of Lu. longipalpis are shown on a red scale: light red (low suitability) to dark red (high suitability), while areas identified as suitable based only on VL cases are presented on a green scale: light green (low suitability) to dark green (high suitability) . The lines indicate the political boundaries of the states and its respective municipalities (GO: state of Goiás; MS: state of Mato Grosso do Sul; MT: state of Mato Grosso; PR: state of Paraná; SP: state of São Paulo). The records used to calibrate the models are represented by squares, while the records used to test the models are represented by triangles.
Fig 2
Fig 2. overlapping ecological niche models of Lutzomyia longipalpis and human cases of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS). The overlapping area is shown in red. The white areas indicate the absence or predicted climatic suitability smaller values (values < 0.60). The lines indicate the political boundaries of the states and its respective municipalities (GO: state of Goiás; MS; MT: state of Mato Grosso; PR: state of Paraná; SP: state of São Paulo). The numbers indicate the name of the municipalities of MS and the numbers between parentheses indicate notified human cases of VL in MS (2003-2012).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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