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. 2014 Mar;25(2):203-6.
doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000055.

The US 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic: quantifying the impact of school openings on the reproductive number

Karen E Huang  1 , Marc Lipsitch, Jeffrey Shaman, Edward Goldstein
Affiliations

The US 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic: quantifying the impact of school openings on the reproductive number

Karen E Huang et al. Epidemiology. 2014 Mar.

Abstract

Background: There is limited information on differences in the dynamics of influenza transmission during time periods when schools are open compared with periods when they are closed.

Methods: Data on school openings, influenza surveillance, and absolute humidity were incorporated into a regression model to estimate the increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the opening of school in 10 US states.

Results: The estimate for the average increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the beginning of the school year was 19.5% (95% credible interval = 10%-29%).

Conclusions: Whether schools are open or closed can have a major impact on community transmission dynamics of influenza.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Influenza incidence proxies around school opening times (weeks) in 2009 in 10 US states (week 0 = median school opening week).
Figure 2
Figure 2
State-specific increases in the natural logarithm of the reproductive number of the influenza epidemic following school opening in 2009. Vertical bars indicate 95% credible intervals.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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