Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2013 Jun 1;40(6):690-711.
doi: 10.1177/0093854812469609.

PREDICTING RECIDIVISM FOR RELEASED STATE PRISON OFFENDERS: Examining the Influence of Individual and Neighborhood Characteristics and Spatial Contagion on the Likelihood of Reincarceration

Gerald J Stahler  1 , Jeremy Mennis  1 , Steven Belenko  1 , Wayne N Welsh  1 , Matthew L Hiller  1 , Gary Zajac  2
Affiliations

PREDICTING RECIDIVISM FOR RELEASED STATE PRISON OFFENDERS: Examining the Influence of Individual and Neighborhood Characteristics and Spatial Contagion on the Likelihood of Reincarceration

Gerald J Stahler et al. Crim Justice Behav. .

Abstract

We examined the influence of individual and neighborhood characteristics and spatial contagion in predicting reincarceration on a sample of 5,354 released Pennsylvania state prisoners. Independent variables included demographic characteristics, offense type, drug involvement, various neighborhood variables (e.g., concentrated disadvantage, residential mobility), and spatial contagion (i.e., proximity to others who become reincarcerated). Using geographic information systems (GIS) and logistic regression modeling, our results showed that the likelihood of reincarceration was increased with male gender, drug involvement, offense type, and living in areas with high rates of recidivism. Older offenders and those convicted of violent or drug offenses were less likely to be reincarcerated. For violent offenders, drug involvement, age, and spatial contagion were particular risk factors for reincarceration. None of the neighborhood environment variables were associated with increased risk of reincarceration. Reentry programs need to particularly address substance abuse issues of ex-offenders as well as take into consideration their residential locations.

Keywords: neighborhood effects; recidivism; reentry; reincarceration; spatial contagion.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Construction of the Spatial Contagion Variable (See Text for Explanation)
Figure 2
Figure 2
Map of Spatial Clustering of 3-Year Recidivism in Philadelphia Note. Red dots = locations with significant spatial cluster of high reincarceration rate compared to Philadelphia’s overall rate; blue dots = locations with significant spatial cluster of low reincarceration rate compared to Philadelphia’s overall rate.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Survival Function From Release to Reincarceration of Ex-Offenders at Different Levels of Spatial Contagion, While Controlling for Age, Race, Gender, Marriage Status, Offense Type, and Drug Involvement
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Akers RL. Deviant behavior: A social learning approach. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth; 1985.
    1. American Psychiatric Association. Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders. 4th ed. Washington, DC: Author; 1994.
    1. Andrews DA, Bonta J. The psychology of criminal conduct. Cincinnati, OH: Anderson; 1994.
    1. Andrews DA, Bonta J. The psychology of criminal conduct. 5th ed. New Providence, NJ: LexisNexis Matthew Bender; 2010a.
    1. Andrews DA, Bonta J. Rehabilitating criminal justice policy and practice. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law. 2010b;16:39–55.

LinkOut - more resources