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Comment
. 2014 Feb 11;111(6):2100-3.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1316006111. Epub 2014 Jan 13.

Reconciling disagreement over climate-conflict results in Africa

Solomon M Hsiang  1 , Kyle C Meng
Affiliations
Comment

Reconciling disagreement over climate-conflict results in Africa

Solomon M Hsiang et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

A recent study by Burke et al. [Burke M, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema J, Lobell D (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20670-20674] reports statistical evidence that the likelihood of civil wars in African countries was elevated in hotter years. A following study by Buhaug [Buhaug H (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(38):16477-16482] reports that a reexamination of the evidence overturns Burke et al.'s findings when alternative statistical models and alternative measures of conflict are used. We show that the conclusion by Buhaug is based on absent or incorrect statistical tests, both in model selection and in the comparison of results with Burke et al. When we implement the correct tests, we find there is no evidence presented in Buhaug that rejects the original results of Burke et al.

Keywords: climate change; security; temperature.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Comment in

Comment on

  • Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.
    Burke MB, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema JA, Lobell DB. Burke MB, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Dec 8;106(49):20670-4. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907998106. Epub 2009 Nov 23. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009. PMID: 19934048 Free PMC article.
  • Climate not to blame for African civil wars.
    Buhaug H. Buhaug H. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Sep 21;107(38):16477-82. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1005739107. Epub 2010 Sep 7. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010. PMID: 20823241 Free PMC article.

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References

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