Long-term predictors of impaired fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes in subjects with family history of type 2 diabetes: a 12-years follow-up of the Brisighella Heart Study historical cohort

Abstract

Aim: To identify and quantify the role of different risk factors in the long-term development of IFG and T2DM in a rural Italian population sample with family history of T2DM.

Methods: We selected a sample of 1271 adult subjects from among those 1851 consecutively visited during four consecutive Brisighella Heart Study surveys (1996-2008), then selecting those ones with a family history of T2DM. Thus, we obtained a final sample including 545 subjects and for which a full clinical and ematochemistry data set was available.

Results: The Cox-regression model better predicting the incident IFG and T2DM included age, gender, FPG, TG and SUA. The model best predicting the incident IFG status alone (without T2DM) is very similar to that predicting both IFG and T2DM, including the same predictors. Finally, the model best predicting T2DM (excluding IFG) simply includes FPG, BMI and ALT/AST ratio. Repeating the Cox-regression analysis using BMI as a covariate, TG appears to be also a significant predictor of T2DM (HR 1.018 95% CI 1.009-1.041, p=0.013).

Conclusion: In a sample of subjects with a family history of diabetes the best long-term predictors of IFG are age, gender, FPG, TG and SUA, while those of T2DM are FPG and BMI.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Family history; Italy; Prediction; Risk factors; Type 2 diabetes.