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. 2014 Feb 24;9(2):e89440.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0089440. eCollection 2014.

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955-2004

Shahera Banu  1 , Wenbiao Hu  1 , Yuming Guo  2 , Suchithra Naish  1 , Shilu Tong  1
Affiliations

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955-2004

Shahera Banu et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas.

Methodology and findings: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region.

Conclusions: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Total number of countries with DF outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004 (Data source: WHO DengueNet).
Figure 2
Figure 2. Cumulative incidence of DF in Asia-Pacific countries (A: 1955–1964; B: 1965–1974; C: 1975–1984; D: 1985–1994; E: 1995–2004).
The X and Y axes of the map show the longitude and latitude, respectively.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Space-time clusters of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region (A: 1955–1964; B: 1965–1974; C: 1975–1984; D: 1985–1994; E: 1995–2004).
The X and Y axes of the map show the longitude and latitude, respectively.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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