Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2014 Feb 27;9(2):e90094.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0090094. eCollection 2014.

Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines

Stuart Paynter  1 , Laith Yakob  1 , Eric A F Simões  2 , Marilla G Lucero  3 , Veronica Tallo  3 , Hanna Nohynek  4 , Robert S Ware  5 , Philip Weinstein  6 , Gail Williams  1 , Peter D Sly  7
Affiliations

Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines

Stuart Paynter et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: Sanofi Pasteur contributed towards direct research costs related to data management for the PCV trial. The authors do not believe this constitutes a conflict of interest related to this manuscript. This does not alter the authors’ adherence to all the PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. RSV model schematic.
S1 are susceptible individuals before their first RSV infection. E1 are individuals infected for the first time but not yet infectious. I1 are individuals infected for the first time and now infectious. R are individuals recovered from infection and temporarily resistant to reinfection. S2 are partially susceptible individuals before later RSV infections. E2 are individuals with subsequent infections but not yet infectious. I2 are individuals with subsequent infections and now infectious.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Cumulative incidence of first RSV infection according to age.
Mean RSV incidence from birth cohorts in Kilifi and Houston (lines) compared to results from anti-RSV IgG seroprevalence surveys (data points with 95% CIs).
Figure 3
Figure 3. Results of the RSV model.
RSV case estimates derived from the model were fitted to the observed number of RSV cases. Mean λ  = 0.0022 per day. Data from Bohol, the Philippines, 2001 to 2004.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Timing of the estimated seasonal variation in the transmission coefficient (β) relative to observed seasonal exposures.
The red line shows the estimated variation in β. The black lines show the variation in the observed exposures. Data from Bohol, the Philippines, 2001 to 2004.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

References

    1. Lozano R, Naghavi M, Foreman K, Lim S, Shibuya K, et al. (2012) Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet 380: 2095–2128. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Weber MW, Mulholland EK, Greenwood BM (1998) Respiratory syncytial virus infection in tropical and developing countries. Tropical Medicine & International Health 3: 268–280. - PubMed
    1. Shek LP-C, Lee B-W (2003) Epidemiology and seasonality of respiratory tract virus infections in the tropics. Paediatric Respiratory Reviews 4: 105–111. - PubMed
    1. Grassly N, Fraser C (2006) Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. Proc R Soc B 273: 2541–2550. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Tamerius J, Nelson MI, Zhou SZ, Viboud C, Miller MA, et al. (2011) Global influenza seasonality: reconciling patterns across temperate and tropical regions. Environmental health perspectives 119: 439. - PMC - PubMed

Publication types