Regional and temporal variations of Leptospira seropositivity in dogs in the United States, 2000-2010

Abstract

Background: Previous studies have reported a seasonal increased risk for leptospirosis, but there is no consistent seasonality reported across regions in the United States.

Objectives: To evaluate and compare seasonal patterns in seropositivity for leptospirosis in dogs for 4 US regions (northeast [NE], midwest [MW], south-central [SC], and California-southern west coast [CS]).

Animals: Forty four thousand nine hundred and sixteen canine serum samples submitted to a commercial laboratory for microscopic agglutination tests (MAT) from 2000 through 2010.

Methods: In this retrospective study, positive cases were defined as MAT titers ≥1 : 3,200 for at least one of 7 tested serovars. Four geographic regions were defined, and MAT results were included in regional analyses based on hospital zipcode. A seasonal-trend decomposition method for times series was utilized for the analysis. Monthly variation in the seropositive rate was evaluated using a seasonal cycle subseries plot and logistic regression.

Results: Two thousand and twelve of 44,916 (4.48%) samples were seropositive. Compared to seropositive rates for February, significantly higher monthly rates occurred during the 2nd half of the year in the MW (OR 3.92-6.35) and NE (OR 2.03-4.80) regions, and only in January (OR 2.34) and December (OR 1.74) in the SC region. Monthly seropositive rates indicative of seasonality were observed earlier in the calendar year for both CS and SC regions.

Conclusions and clinical importance: Seasonal patterns for seropositivity to leptospires differed by geographic region. Although risk of infection in dogs can occur year round, knowledge of seasonal trends can assist veterinarians in formulating differential diagnoses and evaluation of exposure risk.

Keywords: Dogs; Leptospira; Microscopic agglutination tests; Seasonal cycle subseries plot; Seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess; Seropositive.

Figure 1

Four geographic regions used in assessment of temporal patterns of seropositivity to leptospirosis in dogs, 2000–2010.

Figure 2

Seropositive rate (%) of microscopic agglutination tests using 1 : 3,200 titer cutoff for canine leptospirosis in the United States by month from January 2000 through December 2010.

Figure 3

Seasonal‐trend decomposition of the monthly seropositive rate (%) for canine leptospirosis in the United States, 2000–2010, displayed in its 3 components of trend, seasonal, and the remainder.

Figure 4

Seasonal cycle subseries plot of the monthly seropositive rate (%) for canine leptospirosis in the United States, 2000–2010. Horizontal lines display the overall mean seropositive rates for each month in the 11‐year period. Each vertical line above or below the horizontal bar revealed the difference from the overall monthly average in each year of the data.

Figure 5

Seasonal‐trend decomposition plots of the seropositive rate (%) on a monthly basis for canine leptospirosis in 4 US regions.

Figure 6

Seasonal cycle subseries plots of the seropositive rate (%) on a monthly basis for canine leptospirosis in 4 US regions.