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. 2014 Mar 13;11(3):3108-17.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph110303108.

Modeling and preventive measures of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China

Yong Li  1 , Jinhui Zhang  2 , Xinan Zhang  3
Affiliations

Modeling and preventive measures of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China

Yong Li et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flow chart of compartments of the HFMD model.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The comparison chart of the data of HFMD in China and simulation results by model (1).
Figure 3
Figure 3
(a) Simulation of the sum of not hospitalized infectious I(t) and hospitalized infectious Q(t) with parameters from the sixth column of Table 2. (b) Simulation of the sum of I(t) and Q(t) with β = 0.6964 (=0.7738 × 0.9), other parameters from the sixth column of Table. (c) Simulation of the sum of I(t) and Q(t) with ρ = 0.005, other parameters from the sixth column of Table 2. (d) Simulation of the sum of I(t) and Q(t) with γ1 = 0.8267 (=0.7348 × 1.125), other parameters from the sixth column of Table 2. (e) Simulation of the sum of I(t) and Q(t) with γ2 = 0.8052 (=0.2013 × 4), other parameters from the sixth column of Table 2.
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