Development and external validation of a nomogram for overall survival after curative resection in serosa-negative, locally advanced gastric cancer

Abstract

Background: Few nomograms can predict overall survival (OS) after curative resection of advanced gastric cancer (AGC), and these nomograms were developed using data from only a few large centers over a long time period. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an elaborative nomogram that predicts 5-year OS after curative resection for serosa-negative, locally AGC using a large amount of data from multiple centers in Japan over a short time period (2001-2003).

Patients and methods: Of 39 859 patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer between 2001 and 2003 at multiple centers in Japan, we retrospectively analyzed 5196 patients with serosa-negative AGC who underwent Resection A according to the 13th Japanese Classification of Gastric Carcinoma. The data of 3085 patients who underwent surgery from 2001 to 2002 were used as a training set for the construction of a nomogram and Web software. The data of 2111 patients who underwent surgery in 2003 were used as an external validation set.

Results: Age at operation, gender, tumor size and location, macroscopic type, histological type, depth of invasion, number of positive and examined lymph nodes, and lymphovascular invasion, but not the extent of lymphadenectomy, were associated with OS. Discrimination of the developed nomogram was superior to that of the TNM classification (concordance indices of 0.68 versus 0.61; P < 0.001). Moreover, calibration was accurate.

Conclusions: We have developed and externally validated an elaborative nomogram that predicts the 5-year OS of postoperative serosa-negative AGC. This nomogram would be helpful in the assessment of individual risks and in the consideration of additional therapy in clinical practice, and we have created freely available Web software to more easily and quickly predict OS and to draw a survival curve for these purposes.

Keywords: advanced gastric cancer; external validation; multivariable analysis; nomogram; prognosis; survival analysis.