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Comment
. 2014 Sep 15;210(6):995-7.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiu192. Epub 2014 Mar 27.

Reply to Wilson et al

Cécile Viboud  1 , Jana Eisenstein  2 , Ann H Reid  3 , Thomas A Janczewski  3 , David M Morens  4 , Jeffery K Taubenberger  4
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Comment

Reply to Wilson et al

Cécile Viboud et al. J Infect Dis. .
No abstract available

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Age-specific patterns of mortality due to respiratory disease during the October–December 1918 influenza pandemic wave in Kentucky. A, Data obtained using a regression model to estimate the influenza-related mortality rate (ie, the excess mortality rate above a seasonal baseline, as in the original study [2]). B, Results of a crude analysis of death counts that did not rely on population size estimates or baseline models. Blue dots represent observations, black lines are smoothing splines, and grey-shaded areas are 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Vertical grey bars mark the age break points (ie, extrema) and associated birth years identified in the age-specific mortality curves. Both graphs identify a clear mortality peak among young adults aged 24.6–25.6 years (ie, cohorts born during 1892–1893), which is confirmed in analysis of female-specific death counts (for which there was peak at ages 24.3–24.4 years, corresponding to the cohort born during 1893). Analysis of male death counts indicates an earlier peak, at ages 19.5–19.7 years (ie, the cohort born during born 1898), even more inconsistent with hypotheses invoking the 1889–1892 pandemic.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment on

References

    1. Wilson N, Oliver J, Rice G, et al. Age-Specific Mortality during the 1918–19 influenza pandemic and possible relationship to the 1889–1892 influenza pandemic. J Infect Dis. 2014;210:993. - PubMed
    1. Viboud C, Eisenstein J, Reid AH, et al. Age- and sex-specific mortality associated with the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Kentucky. J Infect Dis. 2013;207:721–9. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Serfling R. Methods for current statistical analysis of excess pneumonia-influenza deaths. Public Health Rep. 1963;78:494–506. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Gagnon A, Miller MS, Hallman SA, et al. Age-specific mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic: unravelling the mystery of high young adult mortality. PLoS One. 2013;8:e69586. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Collins S. Age and sex incidence of influenza and pneumonia morbidity and mortality in the epidemic of 1928–9 with comparative data for the epidemic of 1918–19. Pub Health Rep. 1931;46:1909–37. - PubMed