Vorausberechnungen des Herzinfarktgeschehens in Deutschland Zur Entwicklung von Inzidenz und Prävalenz bis zum Jahre 2050 : Zur Entwicklung von Inzidenz und Prävalenz bis zum Jahre 2050

Abstract

Based on the Federal Health Survey from 1998, the Augsburg heart attack registry, and the ninth coordinated population prediction, we have estimated the occurrence of heart attacks in Germany up to the year 2050. From the mere demographic perspective - regardless of medical and social influences - we can expect that the need for cardiac care will increase considerably. If we assume that the risk or the frequency of having a heart attack will remain the same, then the number of heart attacks in people aged 25 to over 90 and 35 to under 90 will increase, although the population size of these age groups will decline. The population over 75 years of age will with certainty determine the course of the incidence and prevalence of heart attacks. In addition to standardised incidence and/or prevalence rates, estimations of the absolute number of incidents and/or prevalent cases of the respective target illness have to be included in morbidity predictions in order to avoid misinterpretations.