Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change

Abstract

Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform.

Keywords: climate change; food security; livestock; population growth; vulnerability.

Fig 1

Sensitivity: nutritional reliance on home-produced grazing animal-based food products and level of food security. 0–1 = low to high sensitivity. Nations not included in the analysis are represented in white.

Fig 2

Exposure: impact of projected changes in climate based on the current percentage of population affected by drought, flooding and extreme weather and projected population growth of nations. 0–1 = low to high exposure. Nations not included in the analysis are represented in white.

Fig 3

Adaptive capacity: a nation's ability to change in response to or cope with changes in climate and food demand based on health, economic and governance indicators. 0–1 = low to high adaptive capacity. Nations not included in the analysis are represented in white.

Fig 4

Overall vulnerability of nations to the impacts of population growth and climate change on grazing livestock and their contribution to food security. 0–1 = low to high vulnerability. Nations not included in the analysis are represented in white.

Fig 5

The percentage change in predicted vulnerability of nations to the impacts of population growth and climate change on grazing livestock and their contribution to food security, under potential future sensitivity and adaptive capacity scenarios, compared with vulnerability calculated on present values for sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Red = increase in vulnerability, green = decrease in vulnerability.