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. 2014 May:21 Suppl 1:60-89.
doi: 10.1111/jvh.12249.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden

H Wedemeyer  1 , A S Duberg, M Buti, W M Rosenberg, S Frankova, G Esmat, N Örmeci, H Van Vlierberghe, M Gschwantler, U Akarca, S Aleman, I Balık, T Berg, F Bihl, M Bilodeau, A J Blasco, C E Brandão Mello, P Bruggmann, F Calinas, J L Calleja, H Cheinquer, P B Christensen, M Clausen, H S M Coelho, M Cornberg, M E Cramp, G J Dore, W Doss, M H El-Sayed, G Ergör, C Estes, K Falconer, J Félix, M L G Ferraz, P R Ferreira, J García-Samaniego, J Gerstoft, J A Giria, F L Gonçales Jr, M Guimarães Pessôa, C Hézode, S J Hindman, H Hofer, P Husa, R Idilman, M Kåberg, K D E Kaita, A Kautz, S Kaymakoglu, M Krajden, H Krarup, W Laleman, D Lavanchy, P Lázaro, R T Marinho, P Marotta, S Mauss, M C Mendes Correa, C Moreno, B Müllhaupt, R P Myers, V Nemecek, A L H Øvrehus, J Parkes, K M Peltekian, A Ramji, H Razavi, N Reis, S K Roberts, F Roudot-Thoraval, S D Ryder, R Sarmento-Castro, C Sarrazin, D Semela, M Sherman, G E Shiha, J Sperl, P Stärkel, R E Stauber, A J Thompson, P Urbanek, P Van Damme, I van Thiel, D Vandijck, W Vogel, I Waked, N Weis, J Wiegand, A Yosry, A Zekry, F Negro, W Sievert, E Gower
Affiliations

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden

H Wedemeyer et al. J Viral Hepat. 2014 May.

Abstract

The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.

Keywords: HCV; diagnosis; disease burden; epidemiology; hepatitis C; incidence; mortality; prevalence; scenarios; treatment.

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