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. 2014;9(4):332-6.
doi: 10.1080/17470919.2014.907201. Epub 2014 Apr 10.

Predictive accuracy in the neuroprediction of rearrest

Eyal Aharoni  1 , Joshua Mallett, Gina M Vincent, Carla L Harenski, Vince D Calhoun, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Michael S Gazzaniga, Kent A Kiehl
Affiliations

Predictive accuracy in the neuroprediction of rearrest

Eyal Aharoni et al. Soc Neurosci. 2014.

Abstract

A recently published study by the present authors reported evidence that functional changes in the anterior cingulate cortex within a sample of 96 criminal offenders who were engaged in a Go/No-Go impulse control task significantly predicted their rearrest following release from prison. In an extended analysis, we use discrimination and calibration techniques to test the accuracy of these predictions relative to more traditional models and their ability to generalize to new observations in both full and reduced models. Modest to strong discrimination and calibration accuracy were found, providing additional support for the utility of neurobiological measures in predicting rearrest.

Keywords: Anterior cingulate; Impulsivity; Prediction; Recidivism; fMRI.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
ROC curve and AUC statistics for any crime across four time periods.
Figure 2
Figure 2
ROC curve and AUC statistics for nonviolent crimes across four time periods.
Figure 3
Figure 3
ROC curve and AUC statistics for any crime with and without the ACC.
Figure 4
Figure 4
ROC curve and AUC statistics for nonviolent crimes with and without the ACC.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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