Clinical predictors of incident gallstone disease in a Chinese population in Taipei, Taiwan

Abstract

Background: Gallstone disease (GSD) is a common gastrointestinal disorder throughout the world. The authors explored the incidence of GSD in Taiwan and its condition-associated predictive factors.

Methods: The initial study cohort comprised 2386 healthy adult participants, who were voluntarily admitted to a teaching hospital for a physical check-up in 2002 in Taipei, Taiwan. After excluding 126 patients who exhibited prevalent GSD, 2260 non-GSD participants received annual follow-up screenings for GSD until 31 December, 2007. Of those, 1296 (57.3%) patients were re-examined to collect blood samples and conduct ultrasound sonography.

Results: Among the 1296 participants who exhibited no GSD at the first screening, 23 patients developed GSD during 3640 person-years of follow-up. The incidence was 0.632% per year (95% CI: 0.292%-2.009%). After conducting a Cox regression, increased age (50-59 years versus < 40 years, RR = 2.16 [95% CI: 1.09-5.97], 60+ years versus < 40 years, RR = 3.81 [95% CI: 2.77-8.63]), high body mass index (≥27 kg/m2 versus < 24 kg/m2, RR = 1.64 [95% CI: 1.07-2.98]), high fasting plasma glucose levels (≥126 mg/dL versus < 110 mg/dL, RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.10-3.87), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (yes versus no, RR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.21-1.90) appeared to be significantly related to developing GSD.

Conclusion: Increased age is a well-established risk factor for developing GSD. The current findings indicated that high body mass index, elevated fasting plasma glucose levels, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were also associated with GSD.

Figure 1

The procedure of screening for gallstone disease among healthy adults during 2002–2007.