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. 2015 Jan;143(2):405-11.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268814001009. Epub 2014 May 1.

Hantavirus infection in rodents and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shaanxi province, China, 1984-2012

P B Yu  1 , H Y Tian  2 , C F Ma  3 , C A Ma  4 , J Wei  1 , X L Lu  4 , Z Wang  5 , S Zhou  6 , S Li  1 , J H Dong  1 , J R Xu  7 , B Xu  2 , J J Wang  1
Affiliations

Hantavirus infection in rodents and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shaanxi province, China, 1984-2012

P B Yu et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2015 Jan.

Abstract

The transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is deeply influenced by the reservoir and hantavirus prevalence rate. In this study, a surveillance on human HFRS cases, relative rodent abundance, and hantavirus infection prevalence was conducted in Shaanxi province, China, during 1984-2012. A generalized linear model with Poisson-distributed residuals and a log link was used to quantify the relationship between reservoir, virus and HFRS cases. The result indicated that there was a significant association of HFRS incidence with relative rodent density and the prevalence rate. This research provides evidence that the changes of infection prevalence in the reservoir could lead directly to the emergence of a new epidemic. It was concluded that the measurement of a number of these variables could be used in disease surveillance to give useful advance warning of potential disease epidemics.

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Conflict of interest statement

None.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases, rodent density and hantavirus infection in Shaanxi province. Grey bars denote the annual incidence of HFRS, the solid and dotted lines represent prevalence rate and rodent density, respectively.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Annual haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) incidence, rodent density and hantavirus infection, 1984–2012. (a) Scatterplot of HFRS incidence and rodent density. (b) HFRS incidence and prevalence rate.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Autocorrelation coefficients of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
The time-series plots of the observed haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence, fitted value and predicted value. CI, Confidence interval.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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