Survival rates and risk factors for mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus patients in a Chinese center

Abstract

This paper aims to study the survival and risk factors affecting the long-term prognosis of Chinese patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We collected clinical data of 1,072 SLE patients at the time of diagnosis. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the survival rate, and the Cox proportional hazard regression model for the risk factors affecting prognosis. Of the original 1,072 recruited SLE patients, 665 (570 females and 95 males) were successfully followed up. Mean follow-up was 5.47 ± 4.62 years. Mean age of onset was 29.4 ± 13.4 years. Eighty-one patients did not survive during follow-up; infection, followed by cardiovascular disease, renal failure and SLE disease activity were the leading causes of death. The 5- and 10-year survival rates were 91.2 and 79.6 %, respectively. Moreover, the 5-year survival rates of female and male patients were 92.6 and 81.6 % respectively, and the 10-year survival rates were 80.8 and 62.3 %, respectively. Univariate analyses indicated that male gender, older age of onset, hypertension, increased blood creatinine levels, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol at the time of diagnosis of SLE were risk factors for all-cause mortality. After adjusting for potential confounders by multivariate analysis, male gender, older age of onset, and high SLEDAI scores at the time of diagnosis were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in SLE patients. The long-term survival of Chinese SLE patients is comparable to that of other countries. Older age of onset, high disease activity, and decline in renal function are independent risk factors for mortality in patients with SLE.