Widening Life Expectancy Advantage of Hispanics in the United States: 1990-2010

Abstract

We examine trends in the Hispanic longevity advantage between 1990 and 2010, focusing on the contribution of cigarette smoking. We calculate life expectancy at age 50 for Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites between 1990 and 2010. We use an indirect method to calculate the contribution of smoking to changes over time in life expectancy. Among women, the Hispanic advantage in life expectancy grows from 2.14 years in 1990 (95 % CI 1.99-2.30 years) to 3.53 years in 2010 (3.42-3.64 years). More than 40 % of this increase reflects widening differences in smoking-attributable mortality. The advantage for Hispanic men increases from 2.27 years (2.14-2.41 years) to 2.91 years (2.81-3.01 years), although smoking makes only a small contribution. Despite persistent disadvantage, US Hispanics have increased their longevity advantage over non-Hispanic whites since 1990, much of which reflects the continuing importance of cigarette smoking to the Hispanic advantage.

Fig. 1

Trends in expected years of life at age 50 for Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites 1990–2010 a women, b men. Estimates refer to remaining years of life expected at age 50. Estimates use standard life table methods. Hispanic life expectancy advantage shown in years. 95 % CIs for life expectancy estimates reflected in lighter lines. CIs for the Hispanic advantage in each year are shown in parentheses

Fig. 2

Contribution of smoking and other factors to the Hispanic advantage in life expectancy at age 50, 1990–2010 a women, b men. Contribution of smoking refers to the expected decline in the Hispanic life expectancy advantage if smoking-related mortality were removed. The contribution of “other factors” reflects the expected magnitude of the advantage in the absence of smoking. Although the role of other factors grows over the period 1990–2010, smoking continues to explain at least half of the Hispanic advantage in each year. Black vertical lines with cap represent 95 % CIs on the magnitude of the Hispanic advantage. White vertical lines with cap represent 95 % CIs for the contribution of smoking

Fig. 3

Sensitivity and robustness: Hispanic life expectancy advantage at age 50 in 1990, calculated under four different assumptions regarding the Hispanic ethnicity of “unclassifiable” deaths in the 1990 multiple cause of death files. “Hispanic advantage” is defined as the difference, in years, between life expectancy at age 50 among Hispanics and life expectancy at age 50 among non-Hispanic whites. Baseline scenario assumes unclassified deaths have the same racial/ ethnic distribution as classified deaths; High scenario assumes 90 % of unclassified deaths are non-Hispanic white, 9 % are other, and 1 % are Hispanic; medium scenario assumes that 75 % are non-Hispanic white, 20 % are other, and 5 % are Hispanic; low scenario assumes That 75 % are non-Hispanic white, 15 % are other, and 10 % are Hispanic