The CAVE score for predicting late seizures after intracerebral hemorrhage

Abstract

Background and purpose: Seizures are a common complication of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We developed a novel tool to quantify this risk in individual patients.

Methods: Retrospective analysis of the observational Helsinki ICH Study (n=993; median follow-up, 2.7 years) and the Lille Prognosis of InTra-Cerebral Hemorrhage (n=325; 2.2 years) cohorts of consecutive ICH patients admitted between 2004 and 2010. Helsinki ICH Study patients' province-wide electronic records were evaluated for early seizures occurring within 7 days of ICH and among 7-day survivors (n=764) for late seizures (LSs) occurring >7 days from ICH. A Cox regression model estimating risk of LSs was used to derive a prognostic score, validated in the Prognosis of InTra-Cerebral Hemorrhage cohort.

Results: Of the Helsinki ICH Study patients, 109 (11.0%) had early seizures within 7 days of ICH. Among the 7-day survivors, 70 (9.2%) patients developed LSs. The cumulative risk of LSs was 7.1%, 10.0%, 10.2%, 11.0%, and 11.8% at 1 to 5 years after ICH, respectively. We created the CAVE score (0-4 points) to estimate the risk of LSs, with 1 point for each of cortical involvement, age<65 years, volume>10 mL, and early seizures within 7 days of ICH. The risk of LSs was 0.6%, 3.6%, 9.8%, 34.8%, and 46.2% for CAVE scores 0 to 4, respectively. The c-statistic was 0.81 (0.76-0.86) and 0.69 (0.59-0.78) in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: One in 10 patients will develop seizures after ICH. The risk of this adverse outcome can be estimated by a simple score based on baseline variables.

Keywords: cerebral hemorrhage; epilepsy; seizures.