Forecasting the burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures

Abstract

Summary: A growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the rate of hip fractures is decisive for the future fracture burden. Significant declines in hip fracture rates in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK are required to counteract the impact of the ageing effects.

Introduction: This study aims to evaluate the consequences of the expected growth of the elderly population worldwide on the hip fracture burden using Norway as an example. Furthermore, we wanted to estimate the decline in hip fracture rates required to counteract the anticipated increase in the burden of hip fracture for Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK.

Methods: The burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures in Norway were estimated given (1) constant age-specific rates, (2) continued decline, and (3) different cohort scenarios. Based on population projection estimates and population age-specific hip fracture rates in women 65 years and older, we calculated the required declines in hip fracture rates needed to counteract the growing elderly populations in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK.

Results: The level of age-specific hip fracture rates had a huge impact on the future hip fracture burden in Norway. Even if the hip fracture rates decline at the same speed, a 22 % increase in the burden of hip fractures can be expected by 2040. An annual decline in hip fracture rates of 1.1-2.2 % until 2040 is required to counteract the effects of the growing elderly population on the future burden of hip fractures in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK.

Conclusions: Hip fracture rates have a great impact on the burden of hip fractures. The rates will have to decline significantly to counteract the impact of a growing elderly population. A change in preventive strategies and further studies are warranted to identify the complex causes associated to hip fractures.