Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2014 Jul 3;9(7):e100850.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0100850. eCollection 2014.

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis and geospatial risk factors of human monocytic ehrlichiosis

Ram K Raghavan  1 , Daniel Neises  2 , Douglas G Goodin  3 , Daniel A Andresen  4 , Roman R Ganta  5
Affiliations

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis and geospatial risk factors of human monocytic ehrlichiosis

Ram K Raghavan et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Variations in spatio-temporal patterns of Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis (HME) infection in the state of Kansas, USA were examined and the relationship between HME relative risk and various environmental, climatic and socio-economic variables were evaluated. HME data used in the study was reported to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment between years 2005-2012, and geospatial variables representing the physical environment [National Land cover/Land use, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)], climate [NASA MODIS, Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy (POWER)], and socio-economic conditions (US Census Bureau) were derived from publicly available sources. Following univariate screening of candidate variables using logistic regressions, two Bayesian hierarchical models were fit; a partial spatio-temporal model with random effects and a spatio-temporal interaction term, and a second model that included additional covariate terms. The best fitting model revealed that spatio-temporal autocorrelation in Kansas increased steadily from 2005-2012, and identified poverty status, relative humidity, and an interactive factor, 'diurnal temperature range x mixed forest area' as significant county-level risk factors for HME. The identification of significant spatio-temporal pattern and new risk factors are important in the context of HME prevention, for future research in the areas of ecology and evolution of HME, and as well as climate change impacts on tick-borne diseases.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Spatial autocorrelation parameter (ψij) and 95% CrI for county level human monocytic ehrlichiosis (HME) relative risk between years 2005–2012 in Kansas.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Kansas county level crude rate ratios for human monocytic ehrlichiosis (HME) in relation to total population (normalized by 10,000) between years 2005–2012.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Smoothed relative risk maps for human monocytic ehrlichiosis (HME) in Kansas from 2005–2012.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Pavelites JJ, Prahlow JA (2011) Fatal human monocytic ehrlichiosis: a case study. Forensic Science Medicine and Pathology 7: 287–293. - PubMed
    1. CDC Ehrlichiosis Website. Available: http://www.cdc.gov/ehrlichiosis/stats/. Accessed 2014 Jun 12.
    1. Yabsley MJ, Wimberly MC, Stallknecht DE, Little SE, Davidson WR (2005) Spatial analysis of the distribution of Ehrlichia chaffeensis, causative agent of human monocytotropic ehrlichiosis, across a multi-state region. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 72: 840–850. - PubMed
    1. Wimberly MC, Baer AD, Yabsley MJ (2008) Enhanced spatial models for predicting the geographic distributions of tick-borne pathogens. International Journal of Health Geographics 7: 15 doi:10.1186/1476-072X-7-15 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Manangan JS, Schweitzer SH, Nibbelink N, Yabsley MJ, Gibbs SEJ, et al. (2007) Habitat factors influencing distributions of Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Ehrlichia chaffeensis in the Mississippi alluvial valley. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases 7: 563–573. - PubMed

Publication types