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. 2014 Jul 16:7:333.
doi: 10.1186/1756-3305-7-333.

Climatic effects on mosquito abundance in Mediterranean wetlands

David Roiz, Santiago Ruiz, Ramón Soriguer, Jordi Figuerola  1
Affiliations

Climatic effects on mosquito abundance in Mediterranean wetlands

David Roiz et al. Parasit Vectors. .

Abstract

Background: The impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases is highly controversial. One of the principal points of debate is whether or not climate influences mosquito abundance, a key factor in disease transmission.

Methods: To test this hypothesis, we analysed ten years of data (2003-2012) from biweekly surveys to assess inter-annual and seasonal relationships between the abundance of seven mosquito species known to be pathogen vectors (West Nile virus, Usutu virus, dirofilariasis and Plasmodium sp.) and several climatic variables in two wetlands in SW Spain.

Results: Within-season abundance patterns were related to climatic variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, tide heights, relative humidity and photoperiod) that varied according to the mosquito species in question. Rainfall during winter months was positively related to Culex pipiens and Ochlerotatus detritus annual abundances. Annual maximum temperatures were non-linearly related to annual Cx. pipiens abundance, while annual mean temperatures were positively related to annual Ochlerotatus caspius abundance. Finally, we modelled shifts in mosquito abundances using the A2 and B2 temperature and rainfall climate change scenarios for the period 2011-2100. While Oc. caspius, an important anthropophilic species, may increase in abundance, no changes are expected for Cx. pipiens or the salt-marsh mosquito Oc. detritus.

Conclusions: Our results highlight that the effects of climate are species-specific, place-specific and non-linear and that linear approaches will therefore overestimate the effect of climate change on mosquito abundances at high temperatures. Climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in mosquito abundance in natural Mediterranean wetlands and will affect, above all, species such as Oc. caspius whose numbers are not closely linked to rainfall and are influenced, rather, by local tidal patterns and temperatures. The final impact of changes in vector abundance on disease frequency will depend on the direct and indirect effects of climate and other parameters related to pathogen amplification and spillover on humans and other vertebrates.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Map of the study area.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Seasonal dynamics of temperature and rainfall in the period 2003–2012.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Seasonal dynamics of the three commonest mosquito species for all localities in the period 2003–2012.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Seasonal dynamics of the four mosquito species present only at Palacio during the period 2003–2012.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Relationship (GAMs) of climatic variables and interannual patterns of mosquito abundance.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Projected temperature and rainfall for the period 2011–2100 according to climate change scenarios A2 and B2 and GCMs ECHAM4 and CGCM.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Percentage of change of female mosquito abundance in the period 2011–2100 in relation to the reference period 1961–1990 according to the relationships between temperature and rainfall and mosquito abundance reported in our study and the climatic projections for scenarios A2 and B2.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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