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. 2014 Jul 24;9(7):e102987.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102987. eCollection 2014.

Statistical cluster analysis of the British Thoracic Society Severe refractory Asthma Registry: clinical outcomes and phenotype stability

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Statistical cluster analysis of the British Thoracic Society Severe refractory Asthma Registry: clinical outcomes and phenotype stability

Chris Newby et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: Severe refractory asthma is a heterogeneous disease. We sought to determine statistical clusters from the British Thoracic Society Severe refractory Asthma Registry and to examine cluster-specific outcomes and stability.

Methods: Factor analysis and statistical cluster modelling was undertaken to determine the number of clusters and their membership (N = 349). Cluster-specific outcomes were assessed after a median follow-up of 3 years. A classifier was programmed to determine cluster stability and was validated in an independent cohort of new patients recruited to the registry (n = 245).

Findings: Five clusters were identified. Cluster 1 (34%) were atopic with early onset disease, cluster 2 (21%) were obese with late onset disease, cluster 3 (15%) had the least severe disease, cluster 4 (15%) were the eosinophilic with late onset disease and cluster 5 (15%) had significant fixed airflow obstruction. At follow-up, the proportion of subjects treated with oral corticosteroids increased in all groups with an increase in body mass index. Exacerbation frequency decreased significantly in clusters 1, 2 and 4 and was associated with a significant fall in the peripheral blood eosinophil count in clusters 2 and 4. Stability of cluster membership at follow-up was 52% for the whole group with stability being best in cluster 2 (71%) and worst in cluster 4 (25%). In an independent validation cohort, the classifier identified the same 5 clusters with similar patient distribution and characteristics.

Interpretation: Statistical cluster analysis can identify distinct phenotypes with specific outcomes. Cluster membership can be determined using a classifier, but when treatment is optimised, cluster stability is poor.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: Pilot funding for the Registry was provided as unrestricted research grants from Astra Zeneca, Glaxo Smith Kline and Novartis. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products to declare. This does not alter the authors' adherence to all the PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials, as detailed online in the guide for authors.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Differences in clinical outcomes between baseline and follow-up for each cluster.
Pre Bronchodilator FEV1 % predicted and Blood eosinophil count statistics are Mean (+/−SD). Exacerbation frequency outcomes are median (IQR) and percentage on oral steroids are percentages.

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