An analysis of prognostic factors in cirrhosis

Abstract

To develop a more comprehensive index for predicting the prognous of liver cirrhosis. 300 consecutive patients with cirrhosis were studied in terms of survival from 1975 to 1986. Median follow-up period was 5.3 years. A multivariable survival analysis (Cox's regression model) using clinical biochemical data obtained at admission disclosed eight factors of value in predicting prognosis: age, frequency of previous GI bleeding, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, serum albumin, serum bilirubin, hemoglobin and prothrombin time. A prognostic index was constructed for the calculation of the estimated survival probability.