A modeling approach to investigate epizootic outbreaks and enzootic maintenance of Rift Valley fever virus

Abstract

We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus among ruminants. Our findings indicate that in endemic areas RVF virus maintains at a very low level among ruminants after outbreaks and subsequent outbreaks may occur when new susceptible ruminants are recruited into endemic areas or abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge when herd immunity decreases. Many factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks; a higher probability of death due to RVF among ruminants, a higher mosquito:ruminant ratio, or a shorter lifespan of animals can amplify the magnitude of the outbreaks; vaccination helps to reduce the magnitude of RVF outbreaks and the loss of animals efficiently, and the maximum vaccination effort (a high vaccination rate and a larger number of vaccinated animals) is recommended before the commencement of an outbreak but can be reduced later during the enzootic.