Spatio-temporal variability of bovine tuberculosis eradication in Spain (2006-2011)

Abstract

In this study we analyzed the space-time variation of the risk of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle between 2006 and 2011. The results indicated that at country level, there were no significant temporal changes between years, but, at county level bTB evolution was more heterogeneous. In some counties, between some years, the prevalence and the incidence of the disease was higher as compared to the global rate in the rest of the counties of Spain. The analysis of potential risk factors indicated that both, a large number of movements from counties with high incidence (>1%), and presence of bullfighting cattle herds increased bTB risk. Red deer abundance, number of goats and number of mixed cattle-goat farms were not significantly associated with the prevalence/incidence of bTB.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis; INLA; Risk factor analysis; Space–time analysis; Spain.