CLIF-SOFA scoring system accurately predicts short-term mortality in acutely decompensated patients with alcoholic cirrhosis: a retrospective analysis

Abstract

Background & aims: Accurate prognostication of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is essential for therapeutic decisions. Our aim was to validate a novel scoring system for predicting mortality, the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), in a population of Asian patients with ACLF.

Methods: A total of 345 patients with acutely decompensated alcoholic cirrhosis were selected for study, comparing areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of CLIF-SOFA and five existing scoring systems for end-stage liver disease [model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, Refit-MELD, Refit-MELD-Na, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh].

Results: CLIF-SOFA displayed the highest AUROC of 0.943 significantly outperforming all five reference methods in predicting short-term mortality at Week 4 (all P < 0.001) by competing risk analysis. In 262 patients given supportive care only, the power of CLIF-SOFA to predict short-term mortality was high (AUROC: 0.952 at Week 1; 0.959 at Week 4), again surpassing the other methods (all P < 0.001). For the remaining 83 liver transplant recipients, CLIF-SOFA also excelled in predicting 12-week mortality (AUROC: 0.978); and high-grade ACLF by CLIF-SOFA was associated with prolonged postoperative mechanical support (i.e. mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy) and ICU stays (all P < 0.05).

Conclusions: CLIF-SOFA enables more accurate prediction of short-term mortality in patients with acutely decompensated alcoholic cirrhosis than other available scoring systems and is useful in predicting both 12-week mortality and the need for mechanical support after liver transplantation.

Keywords: CLIF-SOFA; acute-on-chronic liver failure; validation.