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. 2015 Oct;45(10):1233-43.
doi: 10.1007/s00595-014-1026-x. Epub 2014 Sep 18.

Surgical risk model for acute diffuse peritonitis based on a Japanese nationwide database: an initial report on the surgical and 30-day mortality

Tohru Nakagoe  1 , Hiroaki Miyata  1   2 , Mitsukazu Gotoh  3   4   5 , Takayuki Anazawa  6 , Hideo Baba  1 , Wataru Kimura  1 , Naohiro Tomita  1 , Mitsuo Shimada  1 , Yuko Kitagawa  1 , Kenichi Sugihara  6 , Masaki Mori  6
Affiliations

Surgical risk model for acute diffuse peritonitis based on a Japanese nationwide database: an initial report on the surgical and 30-day mortality

Tohru Nakagoe et al. Surg Today. 2015 Oct.

Erratum in

Abstract

Purpose: Acute diffuse peritonitis (ADP) is an important surgical complication associated with high morbidity and mortality; however, the risk factors associated with a poor outcome have remained controversial. This study aimed in collecting integrated data using a web-based national database system to build a risk model for mortality after surgery for ADP.

Methods: We included cases registered in the National Clinical Database in Japan. After data cleanup, 8,482 surgical cases of ADP from 1,285 hospitals treated between January 1 and December 31, 2011 were analyzed.

Results: The raw 30-day and surgical mortality rates were 9.0 and 14.1 %, respectively. The odds ratios (>2.0) for 30-day mortality were as follows: American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class 3, 2.69; ASA class 4, 4.28; ASA class 5, 8.65; previous percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), 2.05; previous surgery for peripheral vascular disease (PVD), 2.45 and disseminated cancer, 2.16. The odds ratios (>2.0) for surgical mortality were as follows: ASA class 3, 2.27; ASA class 4, 4.67; ASA class 5, 6.54, and disseminated cancer, 2.09. The C-indices of 30-day and surgical mortality were 0.851 and 0.852, respectively.

Conclusion: This is the first report of risk stratification after surgery for ADP using a nationwide surgical database. This system could be useful to predict the outcome of surgery for ADP and for evaluations and benchmark performance studies.

Keywords: Acute diffuse peritonitis; Mortality; Risk factor; Risk model.

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