Prior fracture as a risk factor for future fracture in an Australian cohort

Abstract

Summary: This study investigated the influence of prior fracture on the risk of subsequent fracture. There was a higher risk of subsequent fracture in both young and older adult age groups when Australian males or females had already sustained a prior fracture. Fracture prevention is important throughout life for both sexes.

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of prior fracture on the risk of subsequent fracture across the adult age range in Australian males and females.

Methods: All-cause fractures were grouped into age categories for males and females enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study (Australia) using retrospective self-report data and prospective radiology-confirmed data. For all age categories, the relative risk (RR and 95% confidence interval (CI)) of subsequent fracture in a later age category was compared between those with prior fracture and those without.

Results: For both sexes, childhood fracture increased the risk of subsequent fracture in adolescence (males: RR 21.7; 95% CI 16.0, 27.4; females: RR 8.1; 3.5, 12.8). Males with adolescent fracture had increased risk of subsequent fracture in early adulthood (RR 11.5; 5.7, 17.3) and mid-adulthood (RR 13.0; 6.3, 19.7). Additionally, males with young adulthood or mid-adulthood fracture had increased risk of subsequent fracture in the following age group (RR 11.2; 4.4, 17.9, and RR 6.2; 0.8, 11.7, respectively). Mid-adult fractures increased the risk of subsequent fracture in older adulthood (RR 6.2; 0.8, 11.7). Females with childhood or adolescent fracture had an increased risk of fracture in young adulthood (RR 4.3; 0.7, 7.9, and RR 10.5; 4.4, 16.6), and prior fracture in older adult life increased the risk of subsequent fracture in old age (RR 14.9; 6.4. 23.3).

Conclusions: Fracture prevention strategies may be more effective if attention is directed towards individuals with prior fracture at any age as they have a higher likelihood of sustaining a subsequent fracture later in life.