Mapping Ebola in wild animals for better disease control

Abstract

Identifying the regions where wild animal populations could transmit the Ebola virus should help with efforts to prepare at-risk areas for future outbreaks.

Keywords: Ebola; Ebolavirus; boosted regression trees; disease mapping; epidemiology; global health; human; infectious disease; microbiology; niche based modelling; species distribution modelling; viruses.

Figure 1.. Dates and locations of outbreaks of Ebola virus disease in humans.

Over the last four decades, there have been 23 outbreaks of Ebola virus disease in humans across Africa. The locations of the primary infections from past outbreaks are shown on the map as small circles (coloured pink or red according to the date that the outbreak started). The on-going outbreak in West Africa—which started in December 2013 in Guinea—is shown as a larger black circle. The 2001–2002 outbreak (marked with an asterisk) had primary infections (or ‘index cases’) in both the Republic of the Congo and Gabon—and the 1994 ‘outbreak’ in Côte d’Ivoire infected one researcher who had handled a dead chimpanzee and who later recovered. Pigott, Golding et al. have used the data of previous primary infections, reports of infections in wild animals and data about climate and vegetation to predict regions where Ebola might be transmissible from non-human animals. The at-risk area spans 22 countries: the seven with previous index cases (shaded in red) and a further 15 countries where, to date, index cases have not been recorded (shaded in orange).