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. 2014 Sep 24;9(9):e103657.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0103657. eCollection 2014.

Slowing of the HIV epidemic in Ukraine: evidence from case reporting and key population surveys, 2005-2012

Charles R Vitek  1 , Jurja-Ivana Čakalo  2 , Yuri V Kruglov  3 , Konstantin V Dumchev  1 , Tetyana O Salyuk  4 , Ivana Božičević  2 , Andrew L Baughman  5 , Hilary H Spindler  6 , Violetta A Martsynovska  3 , Yuri V Kobyshcha  7 , Abu S Abdul-Quader  5 , George W Rutherford  6
Affiliations

Slowing of the HIV epidemic in Ukraine: evidence from case reporting and key population surveys, 2005-2012

Charles R Vitek et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: Ukraine developed Europe's most severe HIV epidemic due to widespread transmission among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Since 2004, prevention has focused on key populations; antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage has increased. Recent data show increases in reported HIV cases through 2011, especially attributed to sexual transmission, but also signs of potential epidemic slowing. We conducted a data triangulation exercise to better analyze available data and inform program implementation.

Methods and findings: We reviewed data for 2005 to 2012 from multiple sources, primarily national HIV case reporting and integrated biobehavioral surveillance (IBBS) studies among key populations. Annually reported HIV cases increased at a progressively slower rate through 2011 with recent increases only among older, more immunosuppressed individuals; cases decreased 2.7% in 2012. Among women <25 years of age, cases attributed to heterosexual transmission and HIV prevalence in antenatal screening declined after 2008. Reported cases among young PWID declined by three-fourths. In 2011, integrated biobehavioral surveillance demonstrated decreased HIV prevalence among young members of key populations compared with 2009. HIV infection among female sex workers (FSW) remains strongly associated with a personal history of injecting drug use (IDU).

Conclusions: This analysis suggests that Ukraine's HIV epidemic has slowed, with decreasing reported cases and older cases predominating among those diagnosed. Recent decreases in cases and in prevalence support decreased incidence among young PWID and women. Trends among heterosexual men and men who have sex with men (MSM) are less clear; further study and enhanced MSM prevention are needed. FSW appear to have stable prevalence with risk strongly associated with IDU. Current trends suggest the Ukrainian epidemic can be contained with enhanced prevention among key populations and increased treatment access.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Reported HIV cases among adults and adolescents, Ukraine 1995–2012.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Newly reported HIV cases, Ukraine 2005–2012.
a. Attributed route of transmission. b. Clinical status at time of presentation.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Average annual number of reported HIV cases per 100,000 population, by region, Ukraine 2005–2012.
Figure 4
Figure 4. HIV surveillance among IDU<25 years of age, Ukraine.
a. Reported HIV cases by sex, 2005–2012. b. HIV prevalence in IBBS by region: 2008/2009 and 2011.
Figure 5
Figure 5. HIV prevalence among pregnant women at initial antenatal screening and at delivery, Ukraine 1995–2012.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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