Hemoglobin A1c Levels and risk of severe hypoglycemia in children and young adults with type 1 diabetes from Germany and Austria: a trend analysis in a cohort of 37,539 patients between 1995 and 2012

Abstract

Background: Severe hypoglycemia is a major complication of insulin treatment in patients with type 1 diabetes, limiting full realization of glycemic control. It has been shown in the past that low levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), a marker of average plasma glucose, predict a high risk of severe hypoglycemia, but it is uncertain whether this association still exists. Based on advances in diabetes technology and pharmacotherapy, we hypothesized that the inverse association between severe hypoglycemia and HbA1c has decreased in recent years.

Methods and findings: We analyzed data of 37,539 patients with type 1 diabetes (mean age ± standard deviation 14.4 ± 3.8 y, range 1-20 y) from the DPV (Diabetes Patienten Verlaufsdokumentation) Initiative diabetes cohort prospectively documented between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2012. The DPV cohort covers an estimated proportion of >80% of all pediatric diabetes patients in Germany and Austria. Associations of severe hypoglycemia, hypoglycemic coma, and HbA1c levels were assessed by multivariable regression analysis. From 1995 to 2012, the relative risk (RR) for severe hypoglycemia and coma per 1% HbA1c decrease declined from 1.28 (95% CI 1.19-1.37) to 1.05 (1.00-1.09) and from 1.39 (1.23-1.56) to 1.01 (0.93-1.10), respectively, corresponding to a risk reduction of 1.2% (95% CI 0.6-1.7, p<0.001) and 1.9% (0.8-2.9, p<0.001) each year, respectively. Risk reduction of severe hypoglycemia and coma was strongest in patients with HbA1c levels of 6.0%-6.9% (RR 0.96 and 0.90 each year) and 7.0%-7.9% (RR 0.96 and 0.89 each year). From 1995 to 2012, glucose monitoring frequency and the use of insulin analogs and insulin pumps increased (p<0.001). Our study was not designed to investigate the effects of different treatment modalities on hypoglycemia risk. Limitations are that associations between diabetes education and physical activity and severe hypoglycemia were not addressed in this study.

Conclusions: The previously strong association of low HbA1c with severe hypoglycemia and coma in young individuals with type 1 diabetes has substantially decreased in the last decade, allowing achievement of near-normal glycemic control in these patients. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Figure 1. Relative risk for severe hypoglycemia and hypoglycemic coma by HbA1c category for each treatment year.

RRs (with 95% CIs) are derived from regression analyses with severe hypoglycemia (A) or hypoglycemic coma (B) as the dependent variable, modeling treatment year (x-axis) as a continuous term and HbA1c as a categorical term and including a term for interaction between treatment year and HbA1c, adjusted for sex, age, and diabetes duration. 2012 is the reference year (RR 1.0). Conversion for HbA1c [mmol/mol]  =  (HbA1c [percent] − 2.15) ×10.929.