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. 2015 Jan 6;112(1):167-70.
doi: 10.1038/bjc.2014.532. Epub 2014 Oct 7.

Breast cancer incidence and mortality in a transitioning Chinese population: current and future trends

I O L Wong  1 , C M Schooling  2 , B J Cowling  1 , G M Leung  1
Affiliations

Breast cancer incidence and mortality in a transitioning Chinese population: current and future trends

I O L Wong et al. Br J Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: Projections of future trends in cancer incidence and mortality are important for public health planning.

Methods: By using 1976-2010 data in Hong Kong, we fitted Poisson age-period-cohort models and made projections for future breast cancer incidence and mortality to 2025.

Results: Age-standardised breast cancer incidence (/mortality) is projected to increase (/decline) from 56.7 (/9.3) in 2011-2015 to 62.5 (/8.6) per 100,000 women in 2021-2025.

Conclusions: The incidence pattern may relate to Hong Kong's socio-economic developmental history, while falling mortality trends are, most likely, due to improvements in survival from treatment advancement and improved health service delivery.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-standardised rates of female breast cancer incidence and mortality for women in 2008 (Data source: GLOBCAN 2008).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Annual age-standardised female breast cancer incidence (red line) and mortality (blue line) rates in Hong Kong from 1976 to 2010 and projected incidence and mortality (dotted lines) to 2025 with 95% credible intervals (grey area). Notes: The sAPC (annual percent change from segmented analysis) is significantly different from zero (P<0.05), from which the period centred at 1993 (vertical dotted line) was marked by a join-point at which the slope changed significantly in both the incidence and mortality trends.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Parameter estimates of age (black), period (blue) and cohort (red) effects from two age-period-cohort models for female incidence (upper panels) and mortality (lower panels) trends due to breast cancer (DIC=916.60 for incidence rate model; DIC=737.44 for mortality rate model) with projections (shaded area). Leftmost upper panel (A): Estimated age-specific annual female incidence rates due to breast cancer in 5-year age groups in Hong Kong with 95% credible intervals. Middle and rightmost upper panel (B, C): Estimated relative risks for 10-year birth cohort (beginning in the calendar year 1889) and 5-year calendar period (beginning from 1976) effects associated with the incidence cases with 95% credible intervals, including projected cohort effects for birth cohorts centred on the years 1993, 1998 and 2003 (shaded areas) and projected period effects for periods centred on the years 2013, 2018, 2023 (shaded area). Leftmost lower panel (D): Estimated age-specific annual female mortality rates due to breast cancer in 5-year age groups in Hong Kong with 95% credible intervals. Middle and rightmost lower panels (E, F): Estimated relative risks for 10-year birth cohort (beginning in the calendar year 1889) and 5-year calendar period (beginning from 1976) effects associated with the deaths with 95% credible intervals, including projected cohort effects for birth cohorts centred on the years 1993, 1998 and 2003 (shaded area) and projected period effects for periods centred on the years 2013, 2018, 2023 (shaded area).
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