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. 2014 Nov;41(11):660-4.
doi: 10.1097/OLQ.0000000000000193.

The estimated lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus in the United States

Harrell W Chesson  1 , Eileen F Dunne, Susan Hariri, Lauri E Markowitz
Affiliations

The estimated lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus in the United States

Harrell W Chesson et al. Sex Transm Dis. 2014 Nov.

Abstract

Background: Estimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination.

Methods: We developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability.

Results: We estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%-95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%-97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years.

Conclusions: Our results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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