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. 2014 Dec;104(12):e108-15.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.302148. Epub 2014 Oct 16.

Predicted long-term cardiovascular risk among young adults in the national longitudinal study of adolescent health

Cari Jo Clark  1 , Alvaro Alonso, Rachael A Spencer, Michael Pencina, Ken Williams, Susan A Everson-Rose
Affiliations

Predicted long-term cardiovascular risk among young adults in the national longitudinal study of adolescent health

Cari Jo Clark et al. Am J Public Health. 2014 Dec.

Abstract

Objectives: We estimated the distribution of predicted long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among young adults in the United States.

Methods: Our data were derived from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health participants (n = 14 333; average age: 28.9 years). We used a Framingham-derived risk prediction function to calculate 30-year risks of "hard" and "general" CVD by gender and race/ethnicity.

Results: Average 30-year risks for hard and general CVD were 10.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.1%, 10.7%) and 17.3% (95% CI = 17.0%, 17.7%) among men and 4.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 4.6%) and 9.2% (95% CI = 8.9%, 9.5%) among women. Average age-adjusted risks of hard and general CVD were higher among Blacks and American Indians than among Whites and lower among Asian/Pacific Islander women than White women. American Indian men continued to have a higher risk of general CVD after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Four percent of women (95% CI = 3.6%, 5.0%) and 26.2% of men (95% CI = 24.7%, 27.8%) had a 20% or higher risk of general CVD. Racial differences were detected but were not significant after adjustment for socioeconomic status.

Conclusions: Average CVD risk among young adults is high. Population-based prevention strategies and improved detection and treatment of high-risk individuals are needed to reduce the future burden of CVD.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Percentages of participants with a 20% or higher risk of general cardiovascular disease, by gender and race/ethnicity: National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, United States, 2008–2009. Note. Socioeconomic status (SES) indicators include education, financial stress, income, and early life measures of parental education, parental ability to pay bills, and block group poverty. The sample size was n = 14 333.
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