Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2014 Oct 16;11(10):10694-709.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph111010694.

Predictiveness of disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting in Thailand using meteorological data and vector-borne disease incidences

Suwannapa Ninphanomchai  1 , Chitti Chansang  2 , Yien Ling Hii  3 , Joacim Rocklöv  4 , Pattamaporn Kittayapong  5
Affiliations

Predictiveness of disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting in Thailand using meteorological data and vector-borne disease incidences

Suwannapa Ninphanomchai et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Number of dengue and malaria cases reported on monthly basis on Koh Chang during the years 2001–2011.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Reported dengue cases (black dotted line) and fitted cases (red line) generated by model for the years 2001–2011.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Relative risk of dengue cases as functions of respective climate variables at various lag times.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Reported malaria cases (black dotted line) and fitted cases (red line) generated by model for the years 2001–2011.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Relative risk of malaria cases as functions of respective climate variables at various lag times.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Schmidt W.P., Suzuki M., Dinh Thiem V., White R.G., Tsuzuki A., Yoshida L.M., Yanai H., Haque U., Tho L.H., Anh D.D., Ariyoshi K. Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: Cohort study and spatial analysis. PLoS Med. 2011 doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001082. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Thimasarn K., Siriporn Jatapadma S., Vijaykadga S., Jeerapat Sirichaisinthop J., Wongsrichanalai C. Epidemiology of malaria in Thailand. J. Travel Med. 1995;2:59–65. - PubMed
    1. McMichael A.J. Globalization, climate change, and human health. N. Engl. J. Med. 2013 doi: 10.1056/NEJMra1109341. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Barata M., Ligeti E., De Simone G., Dickinson T., Jack D., Penney J., Rahman M., Zimmerman R. In: Climate Change and Human Health in Cities. Climate Change and Cities: First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network. Rosenzweig C., Solecki W.D., Hammer S.A., Mehrotra S., editors. Cambridge University Press; Cambridge, UK: 2011. [(accessed on 4 April 2014)]. pp. 179–213. Available online: http://uccrn.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/ARC3-Chapter-7.pdf.
    1. Patz J.A., Graczyk T.K., Geller N., Vittor A.Y. Effects of environmental change on emerging parasitic diseases. Int. J. Parasitol. 2000;30:1395–1405. - PubMed

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources