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Review
. 2014:2014:748750.
doi: 10.1155/2014/748750. Epub 2014 Sep 25.

The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

Peter Scarborough  1 , Richard A Harrington  1 , Anja Mizdrak  1 , Lijuan Marissa Zhou  2 , Aiden Doherty  1
Affiliations
Review

The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

Peter Scarborough et al. Scientifica (Cairo). 2014.

Abstract

Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Schematic diagram of the PRIME.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Data flow model for the open-source PRIME Python application.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Overall layout of the main page in the PRIME web application. Input factors are set on the right, and outcomes are returned on the left.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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