[Model calculations of the effect of demographic changes on the incidence of cancer in Saarland]

Abstract

Resulting from the population structure and current fertility and mortality rates, a rapid aging of the West German society is to be expected. The impact of these demographic changes on numbers of cancer cases and incidence rates is quantitatively assessed for the Saarland, which is the only state with reliable population-based cancer registration in the FRG. Despite a projected decrease in population size during the next decades, numbers of incident cases are expected to rise substantially in males and to remain almost constant in females for all of the most common forms of cancer. The projected changes have model character for other parts of the FRG.