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Review
. 2014 Oct 30;5(2):a017798.
doi: 10.1101/cshperspect.a017798.

Global epidemiology of tuberculosis

Philippe Glaziou  1 , Charalambos Sismanidis  1 , Katherine Floyd  1 , Mario Raviglione  1
Affiliations
Review

Global epidemiology of tuberculosis

Philippe Glaziou et al. Cold Spring Harb Perspect Med. .

Abstract

Despite the availability of effective chemotherapy, tuberculosis (TB) killed 1.3 million people in 2012. Alongside HIV, it remains a top cause of death from an infectious disease. Global targets for reductions in the epidemiological burden of TB have been set for 2015 and 2050 within the context of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and by the Stop TB Partnership. Achieving these targets is the focus of national and international efforts in TB control, and showing whether or not they are achieved is of major importance to guide future and sustainable investments. This article provides a short overview of sources of data to estimate TB disease burden; presents estimates of TB incidence, prevalence, and mortality in 2012 and an assessment of progress toward the 2015 targets for reductions in these indicators based on trends since 1990 and projections up to 2015; analyzes trends in TB notifications and in the implementation of the Stop TB Strategy; and considers prospects for elimination of TB after 2015.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Estimated tuberculosis incidence rates per 100,000 population, 2012.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Global trends in estimated TB incidence and estimated TB mortality. (Left) Global trends in estimated incidence including HIV-negative and HIV-positive TB (dark gray, top) and estimated incidence of HIV-positive TB (light gray, bottom). The dashed line shows global trends in case notification rates (all forms of TB). (Middle) Global trends in estimated TB mortality excluding TB-associated AIDS deaths. The dotted line represents the Stop TB Partnership targets of halving mortality by 2015 compared with the level of 1990. (Right) Global trends in estimated TB prevalence. The dotted line represents the Stop TB Partnership targets of halving prevalence by 2015 compared with the level of 1990. Shaded areas represent uncertainty bands.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Trends in estimated TB mortality rates excluding HIV during the period 1990–2012 and forecast TB mortality rates 2013–2015 by WHO region. Estimated TB mortality excludes TB deaths among HIV-positive people (which are classified as AIDS deaths). Shaded areas represent uncertainty bands. The horizontal dashed lines represent the Stop TB Partnership target of a 50% reduction in the mortality rate by 2015 compared with 1990. The other dashed lines show projections up to 2015.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Treatment success rate, 2011 cohort of newly diagnosed TB cases (all forms). Countries shown in white did not report data to WHO for the 2011 cohort.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Percentage of new TB cases with MDR-TB, based on the most recent year for which data have been reported, which varies between countries. Countries and territories shown in white have reported no data. In Brazil, Spain, Central African Republic, Russia, Turkmenistan, India, Malaysia, and Indonesia, drug resistance surveillance data was only subnational.
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