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Comparative Study
. 2015 Jan;150(1):17-22.
doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2014.1756.

Increasing disparities in the age-related incidences of colon and rectal cancers in the United States, 1975-2010

Christina E Bailey  1 , Chung-Yuan Hu  1 , Y Nancy You  1 , Brian K Bednarski  1 , Miguel A Rodriguez-Bigas  1 , John M Skibber  1 , Scott B Cantor  2 , George J Chang  1
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Increasing disparities in the age-related incidences of colon and rectal cancers in the United States, 1975-2010

Christina E Bailey et al. JAMA Surg. 2015 Jan.

Erratum in

  • Incorrect academic degree.
    [No authors listed] [No authors listed] JAMA Surg. 2015 Mar 1;150(3):277. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2015.156. JAMA Surg. 2015. PMID: 25785512 No abstract available.

Abstract

Importance: The overall incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been decreasing since 1998 but there has been an apparent increase in the incidence of CRC in young adults.

Objective: To evaluate age-related disparities in secular trends in CRC incidence in the United States.

Design, setting, and patients: A retrospective cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) CRC registry. Age at diagnosis was analyzed in 15-year intervals starting at the age of 20 years. SEER*Stat was used to obtain the annual cancer incidence rates, annual percentage change, and corresponding P values for the secular trends. Data were obtained from the National Cancer Institute's SEER registry for all patients diagnosed as having colon or rectal cancer from January 1, 1975, through December 31, 2010 (N = 393 241).

Main outcome and measure: Difference in CRC incidence by age.

Results: The overall age-adjusted CRC incidence rate decreased by 0.92% (95% CI, -1.14 to -0.70) between 1975 and 2010. There has been a steady decline in the incidence of CRC in patients age 50 years or older, but the opposite trend has been observed for young adults. For patients 20 to 34 years, the incidence rates of localized, regional, and distant colon and rectal cancers have increased. An increasing incidence rate was also observed for patients with rectal cancer aged 35 to 49 years. Based on current trends, in 2030, the incidence rates for colon and rectal cancers will increase by 90.0% and 124.2%, respectively, for patients 20 to 34 years and by 27.7% and 46.0%, respectively, for patients 35 to 49 years.

Conclusions and relevance: There has been a significant increase in the incidence of CRC diagnosed in young adults, with a decline in older patients. Further studies are needed to determine the cause for these trends and identify potential preventive and early detection strategies.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Annual incidence rates of colon cancer from 1975 to 2010. Rates are per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. The trendlines are logarithmic. A) Localized disease. B) Regional disease. C) Distant disease.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Annual incidence rates of colon cancer from 1975 to 2010. Rates are per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. The trendlines are logarithmic. A) Localized disease. B) Regional disease. C) Distant disease.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Annual incidence rates of colon cancer from 1975 to 2010. Rates are per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. The trendlines are logarithmic. A) Localized disease. B) Regional disease. C) Distant disease.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Annual incidence rates of rectosigmoid and rectal cancer from 1975 to 2010. Rates are per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. The trendlines are logarithmic. A) Localized disease. B) Regional disease. C) Distant disease.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Annual incidence rates of rectosigmoid and rectal cancer from 1975 to 2010. Rates are per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. The trendlines are logarithmic. A) Localized disease. B) Regional disease. C) Distant disease.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Annual incidence rates of rectosigmoid and rectal cancer from 1975 to 2010. Rates are per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. The trendlines are logarithmic. A) Localized disease. B) Regional disease. C) Distant disease.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Percent change of APC-based predicted incidence rate by age compared to incidence rate in 2010. A) Colon cancer. B) Rectosigmoid and rectal cancer.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Percent change of APC-based predicted incidence rate by age compared to incidence rate in 2010. A) Colon cancer. B) Rectosigmoid and rectal cancer.
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Comment in

References

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