[Estimation of syphilis epidemic through application of workbook method among populations aged from 15 to 49 years old in China in 2011]

Abstract

Objective: To apply workbook method for the estimation on syphilis epidemic in China.

Methods: The data on population size and syphilis infection were collected by national STD and HIV/AIDS surveillance system among six populations aged from 15 to 49 years old in 31 provinces in 2011. Six groups included female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), STD clinic attendee, drug users, pregnant women and general population. Meta analysis was applied to pool the different prevalence of the same population in the different sentinels of each province, and then workbook method was applied to estimate the syphilis epidemic in China.

Results: The estimation of syphilis epidemic(95%CI) was 2 979 422(1 504 000-6 063 309) among the populations aged 15 to 49 years old in 2011. The estimation among FSW was 54 624 (38 422-78 875) , that of MSM was 265 453 (162 586-506 520) , that of STD clinic attendee was 53 555 (31 256-98 057) , that of drug users was 94 244 (66 475-139 349) , that of pregnant women was 70 062 (39 942-136 584) and that of general population was 2 441 484 (1 165 319-5 103 924) . The proportion of general population in the whole estimation of syphilis infection was 81.94%, and that of MSM was 8.91%. The estimation of syphilis incidence was 1 489 711 among 15 to 49 years old, and the estimation of syphilis prevalence was 0.40% in the whole country. The estimation of incidence in this research was 5.2 times as the number of reported cases from China information system for diseases control and prevention.

Conclusion: Workbook method was a scientific and feasible toolkit for the estimation of syphilis epidemic in China, and the estimation outcomes were greatly significant for syphilis control.